Oil flip-flops, dollar firms after US hits Iran nuclear facilities

France24
23 Jun 2025, 08:47 GMT+10

The dollar strengthened and oil prices pulled back from their early gains on Monday after the US struck Irans nuclear facilities at the weekend. Asian markets, however, retreated while European stocks were slightly higher as traders nervously awaited Irans response.

Oil pricesgave up most of their early gains on Monday and the dollar strengthenedafter the United States struck Iran's nuclear facilities at the weekend.

Asian marketsmostly retreated while European bourses were marginally higher as traders wait to see how Tehran could respond.

Read moreIran vows US will 'receive a response' after strikes on nuclear sites

"Everything hinges onIran's response and whether it's a symbolic jab or a haymaker that knocks theStrait of Hormuzoffline," said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

One option on the table would be to potentially create economic havoc by seeking to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz -- which carries one-fifth of global oil output.

Iran is the world's ninth-biggest oil-producing country, with output of about 3.3 million barrels per day. Itexportsjust under half of that amount and consumes the rest.

Read more'Dangerous escalation': World leaders call for return to diplomacy after US strikes on Iran

When trading opened on Monday, Brent and the main US crude contract WTI both jumped more than four percent to hit their highest price since January.

They pared these gains however and briefly dipped into the red before recovering totradeslightly higher.

"So far, satellite images reportedly suggest that oil continues to flow through the Strait, which may explain the muted market reaction to the news," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

"Many remain optimistic that Iran will avoid a full-blown retaliation and regional chaos, to prevent its own oil facilities from becoming targets and to avoid a widening conflict that could hurtChinaits biggest oil customer."

But "if things get uglier" the price of US crude could even spike beyond $100 per barrel, she said. WTI was trading around $74 per barrel on Monday.

'Extreme route'

"An oil price shock would create a real negative impact on most Asian economies" as many are big net energy importers, economists at MUFG warned.

Tokyo,Seoul, Sydney,Singapore, Taipei, Manila, Bangkok and Jakarta were all lower.

Hong Kong, Shanghai and Kuala Lumpur were the only gainers in Asia. InEuropean marketsLondonand Frankfurt ticked marginally higher whilePariswas flat.

Read moreRussia and China push for a ceasefire as UN Security Council meets on Iran

The dollar rose against other currencies but analysts questioned to what extent this would hold out.

"If the increase proves to be just a knee-jerk reaction to what is perceived as short-lived US involvement in the Middle-East conflict, the dollar's downward path is likely to resume," said Sebastian Boyd, markets live blog strategist at Bloomberg.

Chris Weston at Pepperstone said Iran would be able to inflict economic damage on the world without taking the "extreme route" of trying to close the Strait of Hormuz.

"By planting enough belief that they could disrupt this key logistical channel, maritime costs could rise to the point that it would have a significant impact on the supply of crude and gas," he wrote.

At the same time, "while Trump's primary focus will be on theMiddle East, headlines on trade negotiations could soon start to roll in and market anxieties could feasibly build".