Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, Im looking into reports that Iran is taking deliveries of a precursor for solid missile propellant from China to replenish its missile stockpile.

What You Need To Know

Chinese Missile Fuel Ingredient:Western intelligence reports say Iran has been importing large quantities of sodium perchlorate from China in 2025, including an initial 1,000-ton shipment early in the year and a larger wave totaling around 2,000 tons since late September. The substance is used as a precursor for solid missile propellant oxidizers like ammonium perchlorate.

Activists Death Sentence Commuted:Imprisoned labor activist Sharifeh Mohammadis death sentenced has been commuted to 30 years in prison, her lawyer Amir Raeesian announced this week. He added that he will seek a retrial and will continue efforts to overturn her conviction and secure an acquittal on the charge of baghi, or armed rebellion. Mohammadi was initially sentenced to death in July 2024 but the ruling wasoverturnedmonths later due to flaws and ambiguities. She was again sentenced to death in February -- a verdict that wasupheldin in August.

Irans Young Women Athletes Light Up Bahrain: Iranian female athletes delivered a milestone-filled week, rewriting record books with historic team crowns and standout individual medals across the Asian Youth Games in Bahrain. The under-18 girls volleyball team seized a first-ever Asian title in a five-set epic over Indonesia, capping a landmark run. Iran's girls handballers made history with the countrys first gold in the sport at Asian level after five straight wins, including a dominant 4326 victory over India. The Iranian girls futsal team edged China on penalties to lift the youth games trophy in Manama. Individually, judoka Mahsa Shakibaei struck gold in the 48-kilo category, hailed as a breakthrough for womens judo, while weightlifter Nasim Qasemi added two silvers to underscore Iran's depth in strength sports. Separately, the womens rugby team took a historic Asian silver, finishing runners-up at the Asia Rugby Emirates Sevens Trophy in Muscat -- the first Asian medal in the teams history.

The Big Issue

A man poses next to the apparent remains of an Iranian ballistic missile in northern Israel in June.

Building Back Up

CNN, citing European intelligence, reported this week that at least 10 shipments of sodium perchlorate totaling roughly 2,000 tons began arriving in Iran on September 29, after UN sanctions were reimposed via the European-triggered snapback mechanism, with several ships and companies already under US sanctions linked to these transfers.

Earlier this year, the Financial Times and Reuters reported on two Iranian-flagged ships, Golbon and Jairan, which are believed to have carried more than 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate from near Shanghai to Bandar Abbas.

You might recall thedeadly explosionat the Shahid Rajaei port back in April. Though Iran denies it, independent experts at the time said the blast appeared to be due to the improper storage of sodium perchlorate.

Why It Matters:The UN sanctions snapback, initiated by Britain, France, and Germany -- the so-called E3 -- reinstated restrictions on Iranian arms and missile activities; however, experts note sodium perchlorate itself may not be explicitly listed, creating a legal gray area that Beijing can use while stating it enforces controls on dual-use items.

Sodium perchlorate is a common precursor used to produce ammonium perchlorate -- which is, in fact, banned under sanctions.

Ammonium perchlorate is the primary oxidizer in many solid-fuel rocket motors for medium-range missiles, making bulk imports of its precursor a strong indicator of scaling solid-propellant production capacity.

The shipment volumes, particularly since late September, imply significant potential output, consistent with efforts to rebuild and possibly expand missile inventories after their depletion during the war with Israel in June.

With its senior echelon of military leadership eliminated and its defenses decimated after the war, Iranhas been lookingto China for help.

It is unclear how Iran is paying for this, but Reutersreportedthis week that Tehran has increased its light crude discount to $8 a barrel -- the widest in over a year.

What's Being Said:As expected, there has been no comment from Tehran or Beijing on the reports -- but plenty of analyses from commentators.

Gregory Brew, a senior Iran researcher and energy analyst at Eurasia Group, said there was nothing unexpected about Tehran wanting to replenish its missile stockpile or Beijing helping it in this effort..

The test will be whether active efforts by Iran to rebuild missile stocks prompts renewed Israeli military action, hewroteon X. Whether Israel can live with an Iran that is rearming, but not rebuilding [its] nuclear program, or whether Israel sees utility in mowing the grass and is undeterred.

Michael Horowitz, an independent analyst based in Israel,speculatedthat the sodium perchlorate shipments constituted only a small part of Chinese aid to Iran. My guess is this might just be thetip of the iceberg.

Expert Opinion:While China and Russia were long seen as offering Iran mostly diplomatic backing, recent developments -- most notably Chinas reported shipments of sodium perchlorate -- suggest Beijing and Moscow are increasing their support, according to Damon Golriz of The Hague University of Applied Sciences.

He told Hannah Kaviani of RFE/RLs Radio Farda that the USled world order "has become fragile," creating space for China and Russia to "fill the power vacuum," with assistance to Iran and North Korea fitting that strategy.

Golriz also argued that Iran is replenishing its missile arsenal at a "faster rate" than Israel is restocking its air defenses.

He added that Tehran will ultimately seek nuclear weapons as a perceived guarantee of regime survival, though he expects any decisive move only after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

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